A new report by the International Energy Agency shows that methane emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high in 2023 – but also that substantial policies and regulations announced in recent months, as well as fresh pledges stemming from the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, have the potential to cause them to go into decline soon. If all these pledges are implemented in full and on time, it would be sufficient to cut methane emissions from fossil fuels by 50% by 2030, the IEA’s latest update of its ‘Global Methane Tracker finds’. However, most pledges are not yet backed up by plans for implementation.
To limit global warming to 1.5 °C, a key goal of the Paris Agreement, methane emissions from fossil fuels need to decline by 75% this decade, according to IEA’s analysis. This would require about $ 170 billion in spending – less than 5% of the income generated by the fossil fuel industry in 2023. Around 40% of the 120 Mt of methane emissions from fossil fuels could be avoided at no net cost, based on average energy prices in 2023. This is because the required outlay for abatement measures is less than the market value of the additional methane gas captured and sold or used.
“[There are] two big things that we hope to see in 2024: first of all, more transparency. New satellites going into orbit are looking specifically at methane emissions,” said Christophe McGlade, the lead author of the report. “The other thing is that we will start to see these pledges, these policies, coming through and that means that 2024 should mark a turning point in our action, in our efforts to reduce methane emissions going forward.”
Promise of new policies
The COP28 climate summit in Dubai produced a large number of new pledges to accelerate action on methane. Substantial new policies and regulations on methane were also established or announced elsewhere in 2023, including those by the United States, Canada, and the European Union; and China published an action plan dedicated to methane emission control. IEA estimates that taken together, if all methane policies and pledges made by countries and companies to date are implemented and achieved in full and on time, methane emissions from fossil fuels would decline by nearly 25 Mt by 2030.
However, in most cases, these pledges are not yet backed up by detailed plans, policies and regulations. The policies and regulations that currently exist would cut emissions from fossil fuel operations by around 20% from 2023 levels by 2030, only half the reduction envisaged by the ‘no cost policy’ outlined by IEA.
