Current climate policies will result in global warming of up to 3.1ºC by the end of the century, according to a United Nations report published on 24 October, more than twice the 1.5ºC rise agreed in 2015 at the UN Climate Change Conference COP21 in Paris as being the highest rise that could be allowed if the planetary weather system was to avoid tipping over into catastrophic climate change.
The annual Emissions Gap report, which compares promises by individual states to tackle climate change with what is needed to limit global warming to 1.5ºC, finds that under the continuation of current policies the world faces as much as 3.1ºC of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100 if governments do not take greater action on drastically cutting the most potent planet warming emissions. Governments in 2015 signed up, at the Paris Agreement, to a cap of 1.5ºC warming to prevent a cascade of dangerous impacts.
Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023, to a new high of 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, according to the report. It prompted UN secretary general Antonio Guterres to issue a stark warning: “We’re teetering on a planetary tight rope. Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster”.
Current and future action
Current undertakings to take future action would lead to a global temperature rise between 2.6 and 2.8ºC, the report found. That is in line with findings from the past three years. “If we look at the progress towards 2030 targets, especially of the G20 member states … [we see that] they have not made a lot of progress towards their current climate targets for 2030,” said Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report. The world has warmed by about 1.3ºC to date since pre-industrial times.
The report suggests that nations must collectively commit to and implement a cut of 42% on yearly greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and reach 57% by 2035 for any hope of preventing warming beyond 1.5ºC. But even now that target may be out of reach.
Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, urged countries to use the Baku talks to increase action in their NDCs. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts,” she said.
Nations will gather next month at the annual United Nations climate summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan, where they will work to build on an agreement made last year to transition away from fossil fuels. Negotiations in Baku will help to decide each state’s update to its strategy, its Nationally Determined Contribution. These are due in February 2025.
