The recommendations call for an increase in the share of renewable sources, maintain the share of nuclear generation, and replace coal by increasing the share of gas-fired generation and renewable resources.
The report presents OPA recommendations to the Minister of Energy on options for the future development of Ontario’s electricity system in response to a May request for advice on the appropriate energy mix out to 2025.
The report predicts a province-wide capacity shortfall later this decade which grows rapidly over time. The shortfall stems primarily from Ontario’s shrinking supply as a result of a lack of investment over the past decade, with growth in demand as an important secondary factor.
“With supply already tight as a result of this under-investment, the sector faces the loss of a major part of its current supply mix as most units of its nuclear fleet reach the end of their design life over the next several years’” the report says, adding : “The loss of nuclear generation would come immediately on the heels of replacement of coal-fired stations, scheduled for completion by 2009. Together, the combination of demand growth and generation retirements would create a gap of roughly 24,000 MW by 2025, equivalent to about 80% of Ontario’s current capacity.”
The report calls for decisions to be made soon and to ensure a combination of resources and technologies and concludes that energy policy should maximise conservation, pursue an aggressive course for renewables, adopt a “smart gas” strategy that takes advantage of the benefits of natural gas-fired generation but limits exposure to its price and supply risks, and benefit from supply options that need long lead times, such as nuclear, large-scale wind generation, hydro imports and gasification.
