A huge opportunity for renewables and natural gas7 May 2020
A recent report* from the International Energy Agency, Africa Energy Outlook 2019, provides in-depth analysis with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa.
Africa is set to become increasingly influential in shaping global energy trends over the next two decades as it undergoes the largest process of urbanisation the world has ever seen, according to the IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook 2019. However, the report concludes that current policy and investment plans in African countries are not enough to meet the energy needs of the continent’s young and rapidly growing population, noting that today, 600 million people in Africa do not have access to electricity and 900 million lack access to clean cooking facilities.
Africa’s population is projected to be more than 2 billion by 2040. It increases by 800 million to 2040, with 70% of the growth in cities – the largest scale of urbanisation in history. By 2040, the average age in Africa is 12 years younger than the global average (source IEA)
The number of people living in Africa’s cities is expected to expand by 600 million over the next two decades, much higher than the increase experienced by China’s cities during that country’s 20-year economic and energy boom. Africa’s overall population is set to exceed 2 billion before 2040, accounting for half of the global increase over that period. These profound changes will drive the continent’s economic growth, infrastructure development and, in turn, energy demand, which is projected to rise 60% to around 1320 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2040, based on current policies and plans.
The continent could fuel an economy four times larger than today with only 50% more energy, if there is a major shift towards modern energy sources such as renewables and natural gas and efficiency improvements (source IEA)
The IEA says the new report is its most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent. With a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa it includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ghana.
The report makes clear that Africa’s energy future is not predetermined. Current plans would leave 530 million people on the continent still without access to electricity in 2030, falling well short of universal access, a major development goal. But with the right policies, it could reach that target while also becoming the first continent to develop its economy mainly through the use of modern energy sources. Drawing on rich natural resources and advances in technology, the continent could by 2040 meet the energy demands of an economy four times larger than today’s with only 50% more energy.
The goal of full energy access remains elusive. Despite progress in several countries, current and planned efforts to provide access to electricity barely outpace population growth; efforts to shift to clean cooking need to accelerate even more (source IEA)
“Africa has a unique opportunity to pursue a much less carbon-intensive development path than many other parts of the world,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “To achieve this, it has to take advantage of the huge potential that solar, wind, hydropower, natural gas and energy efficiency offer. For example, Africa has the richest solar resources on the planet but has so far installed only 5 gigawatts of solar photovoltaics, which is less than 1% of global capacity.”
If policy makers put a strong emphasis on clean energy technologies, solar PV could become the continent’s largest electricity source in terms of installed capacity by 2040.
Natural gas, meanwhile, is likely to correspond well with Africa’s industrial growth drive and need for flexible electricity supply. Today, the share of gas in sub-Saharan Africa’s energy mix is the lowest of any region in the world. But that could be about to change, especially considering the supplies Africa has at its disposal: it is home to more than 40% of global gas discoveries so far this decade, notably in Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania.
Africa’s natural resources aren’t limited to sunshine and other energy sources. It also possesses major reserves of minerals such as cobalt and platinum that are needed in fast-growing clean energy industries.
What is required to achieve full energy access by 2030 (source IEA)
“Africa holds the key for global energy transitions, as it is the continent with the most important ingredients for producing critical technologies,” Dr Birol said. “For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for two-thirds of global production of cobalt, a vital element in batteries, and South Africa produces 70% of the world’s platinum, which is used in hydrogen fuel cells. As energy transitions accelerate, so will demand for those minerals.”
African countries are on the front line when it comes to climate change, meaning the continent’s energy infrastructure planning must be climate resilient.
“Even though Africa has produced only around 2% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions to date, its ecosystems already suffer disproportionately from the effects of a changing climate,” Dr Birol said. “They are exposed to increased risks to food, health and economic security.”
A major increase in the number of hot days in Africa, alongside rapid urbanisation and higher incomes, drives growing demand for cooling. But efficiency measures can cut the impact on electricity demand in half (source IEA)
By 2040, an additional half a billion people in Africa are expected to live in areas requiring some form of cooling as populations expand and average temperatures increase. Although Africa is expected to experience rapid economic growth over the next two decades, its contribution to global energy-related CO2 emissions rises to just 3% by 2040, based on current policies and plans.
Electricity demand growth is projected to be large, primarily from an emerging middle class and productive uses, while gas and renewables, in particular PV, have a big potential role to play in meeting that demand (source IEA)
For this report, the IEA developed a new scenario that analyses how the energy sector can spur Africa’s growth ambitions while also delivering key sustainable development goals by 2030, including full access to electricity and clean cooking facilities. The Africa Case is based on Agenda 2063, African leaders’ own strategic framework for the continent’s economic and industrial development. Economic growth in the Africa Case is significantly stronger over the next two decades than in the scenario based on today’s stated policies, but energy demand is lower. This is linked to an accelerated move away from the use of solid biomass (such as wood) as a fuel and to the wide application of energy efficiency policies.
*Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is an excerpt from the International Energy Agency’s flagship report World Energy Outlook 2019.