Bringing forward the energy transition by a decade, Wärtsilä estimates

Above Image: Covid-19 impact on the European electricity market for the period 10 March to 10 April 2020 compared to 10 March to 10 April 2019 (Image: Wa¨rtsila¨)

The impact was even more stark in the month to 10 April 2020, the company says, with coal generation collapsing by 29% between 10 March and 10 April compared with the same period in 2019, making up only 12% of total EU+UK generation. By contrast, renewables delivered 46% of generation – an increase of 8% compared with 2019, Wa¨rtsila¨ estimates. In total, demand for electricity in Europe is down by around 10% due to measures taken to combat Covid-19, to its lowest level since the Second World War.

The result is an unprecedented fall in carbon emissions from the power sector, with emission intensity falling by 19.5% compared with the same 10 March to 10 April period last year.

“The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on European energy systems is extraordinary”, said Bjo¨rn Ullbro, VP for Europe & Africa, Wa¨rtsila¨ Energy Business. “We are seeing levels of renewable electricity that some people believed would cause systems to collapse, yet they haven’t – in fact they are coping well. The question is, what does this mean for the future?”

The analysis comes from the Wa¨rtsila¨ Energy Transition Lab (www.wartsila.com/energy/transition-lab), a new free-to-use open-data platform developed by Wa¨rtsila¨ to help understand the impact of Covid-19 on European electricity markets and analyse what this means for the future design and operation of its energy systems. The tool provides detailed data on electricity generation, demand and pricing for all 27 EU countries plus the UK, combining Entso-E data “in a single, easy to use platform.” It will also allow users to model how systems could operate in future with higher renewables, says Wa¨rtsila¨, helping pinpoint problem areas and highlight where to focus policy and investment. The goal is to help accelerate the transition to 100% renewables, says Wa¨rtsila¨.

“What we can see today is how our energy systems cope with much more renewable power – knowledge that will be invaluable to accelerate the energy transition. We are making this new platform freely available to support the energy industry to adapt and use the momentum this tragic crisis has created to deliver a better, cleaner energy system, faster.”

The figures mark a dramatic shift in Europe’s energy mix – one that was not anticipated to occur until the end of the decade. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis has effectively accelerated the energy transition in the short-term, providing a unique opportunity to see how energy systems function with far higher levels of renewables.

Ullbro added: “Electricity demand across Europe has fallen due to the lockdown measures applied by governments to stop the spread of the coronavirus. However, total renewable generation has remained at pre-crisis levels with low electricity prices, combined with renewables-friendly policy measures, squeezing out fossil fuel power generation, especially coal. This sets the scene for the next decade of the energy transition.”

These Europe-wide impacts are mirrored at a national level, for example:

• In the UK, renewables now have a 43% share of generation (up 10% on the same 10 March to 10 April period in 2019) with coal power down 35% and gas down 24%.
• Germany has seen the share of renewables reach 60% (up 12%) and coal generation fall 44%, resulting in a fall in the carbon intensity of its electricity of over 30%.
• Spain currently has 49% renewables with coal power down by 41%.
• Italy has seen the steepest fall in demand, down 21% so far.