The European Commission is likely to propose a 2040 emissions reduction target for the EU in the first quarter this year. This intermediate goal will act as a way-marker to the existing 2050 net-zero emissions goal, which the Commission has already suggested should be a net emissions reduction of 90 % over 1990 levels.
The necessary reform of the union’s climate law will still have to be negotiated by member state governments and the European Parliament. The target will also form the basis of the EU’s 2035 climate ambition, due to be submitted under the Paris Agreement by September 2025.
The European Union’s 2040 emissions reduction target would be a legally binding amendment to the European Climate Law, which was agreed in 2021. It sets out the EU’s 55 % net emissions reduction target for 2030 and its 2050 net-zero emissions goal.
The legal amendment is expected to go through the co-decision process, where the European Parliament and EU member state governments negotiate the text and then come together to decide the final wording in meetings called trilogues. Due to its political significance, EU leaders may also weigh in via a European Council meeting, as happened with the 2030 target
In February 2024, the European Commission suggested that the target should be a net emissions reduction of 90 % by 2040, based on 1990 levels. This was based on a recommendation from the EU’s independent scientific advisory board to have a target of 90-95 %.
The European Commission is widely expected to stick to this goal as the 90 % target is included in the European Union’s agenda-setting competitiveness compass and the Clean Industrial Deal. According to the Commission, the goal would put the EU on course for climate neutrality by 2050, ensure predictability, boost competitiveness and enable the EU to lead in developing clean technology.
The ‘net’ element of the target refers to the total amount of emissions that end up in the atmosphere – or gross emissions minus human and natural activities to remove them. These removals could be nature-based, where trees, soils and other natural processes take carbon from the atmosphere, or technical, permanent removals, for instance, direct air carbon capture and storage. According to the Commission’s own impact assessment the EU will achieve a gross emissions reduction of 75-85 % by 2040, showing that removals are needed alongside emissions cuts.
The European Commission could boost the 2040 target’s credibility and measurability by breaking it into three sub-targets: gross emissions, nature-based removals and technical removals. The scientific advisory board has already recommended separating targets for permanent and nature-based removals and said that targets for these would help reach their potential.
The European Commission has not given a specific date for the 2040 target’s publication. In its work programme, the Commission states that the European Climate Law will be amended by the end of Q1 this year. The 2040 target is significant because it will help dictate how steep the emissions reduction curve is between 2030 and 2050.
