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A study of the Northeast USA gas and electric systems published on 21 January by the Northeast Power Co-ordinating Council (NPCC) has underscored how natural gas dependency in New England and New York poses a high risk for electric reliability during extreme winter weather under certain circumstances. The analysis confirms that the natural gas system is fully or near fully utilised during extreme conditions and reveals that certain contingencies, such as pipeline disruptions and protracted extreme weather, pose severe threats to reliability.
“NPCC’s report is a sobering assessment and yet another call to action in a region that is running close to the edge,” commented Jim Robb, NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corp) president and CEO. “During winter extremes, the electric system in the Northeast is dependent upon reliable natural gas supply. When rare, but well-observed contingencies occur, reliability is gravely threatened. This untenable situation cannot be mitigated solely by electric system operators, calling out the urgent need for tight operational and planning co-ordination between the two sectors.”
NERC commended NPCC for undertaking this analysis on the adequacy of the natural gas system to sustain electric reliability in the Northeast. The study depends heavily on informed by contributions from a diverse Steering Committee comprised of electric and gas systems operators, the Northeast Gas Association, NPCC, and NERC.
The study’s credible conclusions are hoped to be a rallying cry for stakeholders to urgently develop and implement risk mitigation actions, beyond the industry co-ordination efforts currently underway. NERC is currently conducting similar assessments in other regions and encourages reliability stakeholders to incorporate these assessments into their planning and operating plans.
‘Take all appropriate actions’ – NERC
NERC, called for the power sector to prepare for an upcoming winter of storms storm on 31 December last year, saying that said the organisation was “especially concerned about natural gas” in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast areas from 2 January, when Arctic air was expected to hit the eastern half of the USA, warning about ‘storms that could result in the lowest January temperatures in more than a decade in some places’ according to meteorologists. The grid reliability crisis could last “deep into January” said NERC.
NERC CEO Jim Robb said in a video message published 31 Dec. 31: “I’m asking everyone in the electricity supply chain, from natural gas producers to pipeline operators, to system operators, to power generators and the utilities themselves, to take all appropriate actions … by taking take early action, electric system stakeholders can help to avoid a repeat of widespread outages that resulted from Winter Storm Uri in 2021 in Texas and Winter Storm Elliott in 2022 across the Mid-Atlantic region.” The series of anticipated cold fronts could last two to three weeks, he said.
The Natural Gas Supply Association said its members have taken steps to prepare and winterise their systems. Colder weather and increased demand are expected to put “slight upward pressure” on gas prices compared to last winter, the group said in its winter outlook published in October.