The US Energy Information Administration expects, for the first year on record, that combined electricity generation from wind and solar will overtake generation from coal in 2024. It anticipates that solar generation in 2024 will increase by 39% from 2023, driven by continuing increases in solar capacity.
EIA expects natural gas prices to be $2.77 per million British thermal units this winter, about 23% lower than previously forecast. The winter season is off to a warmer-than-expected start, so US households are consuming less natural gas for heat than expected. The lower natural gas consumption is also contributing to rising US natural gas inventories, which typically results in lower prices. The pairing of record domestic natural gas production with lower-than-expected natural gas demand is expected to push prices lower this winter season.
EIA expects that the 23 GW in 2023 and 37 GW in 2024 of new solar capacity scheduled to come online will help US solar generation grow by 15% in 2023 and by 39% in 2024, so that solar and wind generation together in 2024 will overtake power generation from coal for the first year ever, exceeding coal generation by nearly 90 billion kWh.
EIA will publish its next Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on 9 January 2024, including the agency’s first forecasts for the energy sector through to 2025.
The full December 2023 STEO is available on the EIA website.
