The latest International Energy Agency oil market report reveals strong output from the Americas, the unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts and weaker-than-expected demand growth due to economic headwinds that could result in a 600 000-barrel-per-day surplus of oil in 2025, according to its March 2025 assessment.
Global oil demand growth is expected to average just over 1 million barrels per day this year, up from 830 000 bpd in 2024, which is closely in line with the IEA’s original forecast. Economies in Asia are set to account for almost 60% of the increase in global demand – led by China, where petrochemical feedstocks are expected to account for all the growth, as demand for refined fuels reaches a plateau.
At the same time, output from non-OPEC+ countries is forecast to rise strongly this year, led by the Americas. The United States is currently producing at record highs and is forecast to be the largest source of supply growth in 2025, followed by Canada, Brazil and Guyana. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is set to unwind production cuts in April. That could result in a significant supply cushion in 2025 – though the report notes that there are plenty of risks accompanying this outlook, including from escalating trade tensions, whose macroeconomic effects are currently difficult to quantify.
Learn more in the summary and highlights from IEA’s latest Oil Market Report.
