Data in the latest forecast from the IMO show that reserves could be 1000-3000MWe below required levels this summer, assuming normal weather patterns. In the event of an extended heat wave, the shortfall could be as much as 4200MWe. The limited capacity of existing transmission lines means a maximum of 4000MWe can be imported to make up the shortfall.
In its report, the IMO said there continues “to be a risk, particularly in July and August, that availability and production from the three nuclear units scheduled to come back on line this summer may be lower than forecast.” One of the Bruce Power plant units was due to reenter service in April has been delayed yet again, and is now set to restart on 15 July, with a second unit restarting a month later. In addition, the first of Pickering A’s four units was due to have restarted in December 2000, and cost $800 million. The latest cost estimate is $1.2 billion, and a recent June deadline has been extended to August.
