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The US Energy Information Administration’s latest ‘Short term energy outlook’ (STEO) shows that US renewable capacity additions – especially solar – will continue to drive the growth of US power generation over the next two years. EIA expects US utilities and independent power producers to add 26 GW of solar capacity to the electric power sector in 2025 and 22 GW in 2026. In 2024, the sector added a record 37 GW of solar power capacity, almost double 2023 solar additions. EIA forecasts that wind capacity additions will increase by around 8 GW in 2025 and 9 GW in 2026, slight increases from the 7 GW added in 2024.
In contrast to solar and wind, generating capacity for most other energy sources will remain largely unchanged in 2025 and 2026. Natural gas-fired capacity growth slowed in 2024, with only 1 GW of capacity added to the power mix, but natural gas remains the largest source of US power generation.
EIA forecasts US coal retirements will accelerate, removing 6% (11 GW) of coal generating capacity from the electricity sector in 2025 and removing another 2% (4 GW) in 2026. Last year, coal retirements represented about 3 GW of power capacity removed from the system, which is the lowest annual total of coal capacity retired since 2011.