The UK government’s advisory body on climate, the Climate Change Committee, has assessed the current situation and concluded that only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the country’s 2030 target are currently covered by credible plans. The 2030 target is the first stage requirement of the UK’s Net Zero trajectory.

This news comes against the backdrop of a more positive story – that UK emissions are now at less than half the levels they were in 1990. This is largely owing to the phase-out of coal and the ramping up of renewables. This project has been a huge success – but to continue to decarbonise the UK ‘we will now need to see ambitious action not just in the energy sector, but also across transport, buildings, industry and agriculture. The plans in place from the previous Government will not deliver enough action’ says the CCC.

Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the Climate Change Committee said:

“The country’s 2030 emissions reduction target is at risk. The new government has an opportunity to course-correct, but it will need to be done as a matter of urgency to make up for lost time. They are off to a good start. Action needs to extend beyond electricity, with rapid progress needed on electric cars, heat pumps and tree planting.”

The Committee has written a priority list of ten recommendations. High among these are making electricity cheaper, reversing recent policy rollbacks, and ramping up rates of tree planting and peatland restoration.

Much of the low carbon technology needed is already available. Yet almost all our indicators for the scale up and roll out of that technology are off track, with rates needing to significantly ramp up. By 2030:

  • Annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times.
  • Approximately 10% of existing homes in the UK will need to be heated by a heat pump, compared to only approximately 1% today.
  • The market share of new electric cars needs to increase from 16.5% in 2023 to nearly 100%.

The Committee has drawn attention to the damage done by policy rollbacks, which have increased the gap between the UK’s plans and its targets. The broader messaging, both domestically and internationally, also caused significant uncertainty about the country’s commitment to Net Zero. The Committee has urged the new government to address this, with a clear commitment to the Net Zero transition, backed with rapid policy action and a sharp focus on removing barriers.